Source Mint
MUMBAI – In a sharp departure from the bullish sentiment seen early in the year, Rohit Srivastava, founder and market strategist at Indiacharts.com, has warned that the Nifty 50 could plummet toward the 19,000 mark by the end of 2026. This projection comes as global economic pressures and technical “breakdowns” begin to weigh heavily on Indian equities.
Global Pressures and Technical Signals
According to Srivastava, while the benchmark index has shown resilience on the surface, the underlying health of the market is beginning to deteriorate. He noted that many individual stocks have already started to slip, signaling a broader weakness that could eventually pull the entire index down.
“The Nifty 50 could be headed toward 19,000 by the end of this year due to global headwinds,” Srivastava told Mint. “Global markets have been overheated, and US indices have broken down from an ending diagonal pattern.”
Srivastava highlighted that the market top formed in January 2026 (where the Nifty hit a record high of 26,373.20) is a critical level. Failure to surpass this peak suggests that the market will remain under significant pressure at higher levels throughout the year.
The Impact of Trade and Policy
The Indian market recently experienced a surge in optimism following the announcement of a US-India trade deal. However, the Nifty 50 failed to maintain those gains and has remained range-bound in recent sessions.
As of early February 2026, the Nifty 50 is trading near the 25,600–25,700 range. While some analysts remain hopeful for a recovery toward 30,000, Srivastava cautions that such a rally would require:
Dramatic interest rate cuts by the RBI.
A significant increase in government spending.
He warned, however, that such aggressive measures could “endanger” India’s bond and currency markets.
Sectoral Resilience: Banking Stands Out
Despite the grim outlook for the broader index, Srivastava believes the Banking sector may offer a silvering lining. Having been the best-performing sector of 2025, he suggests it is “premature” to expect banks to decline as sharply as the rest of the market, as they still carry intrinsic value.
Indicator Current Level (Approx.) Projected Year-End Target
Nifty 50 25,693 19,000
USDINR 91.00 98.00 (Long-term)
The “Equity is Gold” Shift
In earlier outlooks, Srivastava championed a tactical rotation from overbought precious metals like gold and silver into equities. While he maintains that equities are a key asset class, his latest technical analysis suggests that the “overheated” nature of global markets is now the primary risk that investors must navigate as 2026 progresses.
