Source News 18
KOLKATA — As West Bengal heads into the critical second phase of the 2026 Assembly Elections tomorrow, the air in Kolkata is thick with more than just humidity. In the narrow, bustling lanes of Bara Bazar, Asia’s largest wholesale market, a peculiar “economic indicator” is suggesting a tectonic shift in the state’s political landscape: the color of gulaal (colored powder).
While traditional pollsters remain cautious, the “Gulaal Index” and international betting markets like Polymarket are painting a high-stakes picture of the battle between Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The Gulaal Index: Saffron Outpacing Green?
In Bara Bazar, where political fortunes are often measured by the metric ton, wholesalers are reporting a massive surge in orders for saffron-colored powder. Historically, the party whose supporters stock up on celebratory colors before the results are even announced often holds the momentum.
“The demand for saffron gulaal has spiked by nearly 40% compared to the 2021 elections,” says Rajesh Gupta, a veteran wholesaler in Posta. “While TMC’s green is still moving, the bulk orders from the districts are heavily leaning toward saffron. In business, we say the powder never lies—people only buy what they plan to throw in the air.”
US Betting Markets: A High-Stakes Toss-Up
Thousands of miles away, US-based prediction markets are seeing record volumes on the West Bengal election. According to data from Polymarket, which has seen over $3.9 million in trading volume on this specific outcome, the odds have been swinging wildly.
BJP’s Surge: Following a massive ~93% voter turnout in Phase 1, the BJP’s implied probability of winning the state reached a high of 58%.
TMC’s Resilience: As of April 28, the market has corrected slightly, with the BJP at 50.6% and the AITC (TMC) at 46.2%.
The Volatility: Traders are reacting to Prime Minister Modi’s aggressive campaigning in North 24 Parganas and the “Sandeshkhali factor,” which betting boards suggest has eroded the TMC’s traditional grip on rural women voters.
Ground Reality vs. Digital Odds
Despite the bullishness of the betting markets and the saffron-tinted sales in Bara Bazar, the TMC remains a formidable “street-fighting” force. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has dismissed the external “speculation,” focusing her campaign on “Bengali Pride” and social welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar.
Political analysts warn that while betting boards reflect “sentiment,” they often struggle to capture the silent voter. “Betting markets track the noise,” says Gargi Nandi, a political commentator. “But in Bengal, the silent voter—especially in the minority-heavy belts and rural pockets—often waits until the final phase to reveal their hand.”
The Road Ahead
With Phase 2 polling set for April 29, covering key constituencies like Krishnaganj and Tehatta, the tension is palpable. If the “Gulaal Index” is to be believed, the BJP is preparing for a historic victory celebration. However, if Didi’s grassroots machinery holds firm, the US bettors might be in for a very expensive surprise.
For now, the streets of Kolkata are quiet, but the ledger books in Bara Bazar and the digital tickers in New York tell a story of a state standing on the edge of a historic mandate.
Fact Check: Betting on elections is illegal in India; the data cited refers to international prediction markets where such activity is regulated.
